What a Trump win would mean for Canadian economy, business
Donald Trump’s early and decisive caucus win in Iowa has touched off - not surprisingly - a flurry of speculation about what a presidential comeback would mean for American, Canadian and global economies.
American and foreign business leaders appear to be divided over whether a Trump return to the White House would be beneficial or catastrophic for the economy.
Here at home, a new poll by Angus Reid found that half of Canadians are worried the U.S. could be on the way to becoming an authoritarian state. Canadians are also worried about the impact a Trump 2 presidency could have on the domestic economy.
Some key findings:
Canadians are three times as likely to say that a Biden victory would be better for the Canadian economy (53 per cent) than a Trump win (18 per cent). Another 29 per cent don’t think it would matter either way for Canada.
Drilling down with past Conservative voters, the poll found they are more likely – though only slightly – to say that Trump winning the presidency would be beneficial to Canada’s economy (37 per cent), while 33 per cent believe neither candidate would make a difference and 27 per cent say Biden would be better.
Just four per cent of past Liberals and seven per cent of past New Democrats say Trump would be better, while the vast majority prefer Biden.
Angus Reid Institute President Shachi Kurl told Means & Ways that while Trump has had hardcore fans in Canada, he has never been popular among most Canadians. That explains why people are most likely to see a win for Joe Biden as better for the domestic economy.
“On the other hand, Canadians are realistic and under few illusions. Regardless whether it’s a Republican or Democrat President in the White House after the next election, Canadians know the U.S. will put its own interests first when it comes to jobs, trade and overall economic policy,” she said.
“Canadians may bear the bad memories of the USMCA negotiations with Trump. But the agreement is due for a review in the next term, and they won’t feel any better if protectionist forces pressure a victorious Joe Biden either.”
Trudeau has already begun using talking points that Canadians will likely hear a lot of right up until the next election, where he will portray himself as a bulwark against far-right populism.
This week, a day after Donald Trump won the Iowa Republican caucuses, Trudeau had this to say
"Do they want to be a nation that is optimistic and committed to the future? Or will they choose a step backwards, nostalgia for a time that never existed, a populism that reflects a lot the anxiety and fury that people are going through without necessarily offering solutions?"
And here’s the kicker: "In two years here in Canada, we’ll have a similar choice.’’
To be sure, Trump’s presidency is looming large in capitals around the world for obvious reasons.
But the comments from Trudeau will only stoke concern among business executives that the coming political discourse in Canada – the Axe the Tax vs. MAGA election – will lack the policy substance and seriousness needed to tackle the nation’s big competitiveness issues.
While the edges here are a lot less sharp, our political system isn’t likely to produce great outcomes over the next two years.
The political polarization is evident and the coming election campaign will get nasty. Expect politics to dictate policy more than it ever has, which could make 2024 a long one for Canada’s business community.
