The Canada-U.S. relationship will survive the election; our approach may not
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and United States Vice-President Kamala Harris wave from the balcony outside her office Thursday, November 18, 2021 in Washington, D.C.
In the days following Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election, there will be plenty written on what the results mean for Canada.
According to a recent Leger poll, Canadians would prefer Kamala Harris as president by a three-to-one margin. Economists also worry about the potentially destabilizing effects of a Donald Trump administration, particularly around the unpredictability of tariffs and trade disruptions. But both candidates are navigating a political landscape where protectionism and inward-looking policies have become mainstream.
For Canada, these underlying trends in U.S. economic policy won’t change regardless of who wins, and the tensions they create will only intensify as we approach the renewal of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2026.
U.S. trade policy is now deeply interwoven with national security, supply chain stability, climate policy, labour rights and the pursuit of technological supremacy. Economic interests alone are no longer the central driver of American trade policy, and for Canada, this shift calls for a substantial rethink in our approach to the U.S.
To illustrate this, it’s worth invoking Pierre Trudeau’s oft-cited remark about sleeping next to an elephant—and feeling every twitch and grunt. While overused, the metaphor captures the persistent reality of Canada’s relationship with its larger, more powerful neighbour—the asymmetry and ever-present threat, along with the importance of awareness, diplomacy, accommodation and strategic action.
This truth feels more relevant today than the economic determinism that has guided Canadian expectations and policies in recent decades. Geopolitics is dictating economics—not the other way around. The assumption that economic interests will ultimately prevail is increasingly tenuous.
‘Negotiation and cooperation’
Today, market access is just one piece of a much larger puzzle.
I’ll draw on some insights from former finance minister Bill Morneau, who played a central role in the USMCA negotiation in 2017 and 2018. In a recent column for the Globe and Mail, he discussed how our allies now expect Canada to support their broader strategic objectives. This requires us to engage on issues that extend beyond tariffs and trade balances.
Consider the Team Canada strategy. This approach was crucial during the USMCA talks, bringing together a united front of provincial leaders, business executives and union representatives. At the time, Team Canada operated on the premise that trade policy was driven by economic interests and that the challenge lay in convincing Americans that a strong trading relationship with Canada was mutually beneficial.
Today, as we prepare for the fallout of the elections and USMCA's renewal in 2026, the Team Canada playbook may no longer be enough. That’s because the assumptions underpinning it—that economic interests will prevail and that our task is simply to make these benefits known—may no longer hold.
Our allies and partners increasingly prioritize defense commitments, technological security and energy resilience. Telling U.S. stakeholders that we are the top trading partner for 34 states is important, but it isn’t enough.
Morneau recommends evolving our economic policies to align more closely with U.S. priorities: increasing defense spending, supporting resilient supply chains—especially in critical minerals—and advancing a cohesive technology strategy. We need to demonstrate our commitment as a stable, secure ally that can contribute to American geopolitical and economic goals.
Largest market
At the same time, while economic interests may no longer be the sole consideration, they remain a powerful force that will continue to shape the resilience of Canada-U.S. ties. I don’t mean to diminish that truth. There’s no question Americans benefit greatly from our bilateral ties.
Canada stands as the largest export market for the U.S., absorbing nearly 20 per cent of its exports, and IS the top trading partner for 34 states.
Approximately 60 per cent of U.S. crude oil imports come from Canada, which is also a major supplier of natural gas and electricity.
Our financial systems, manufacturing sectors and energy markets are deeply integrated, and together, Canadian and U.S. oil producers represent more than 20 per cent of global oil output.
In a world that seems to lurch from crisis to crisis, knowing who your true allies are matters more than ever. Canada remains that safe and secure partner for the U.S., a steadfast ally.
This is why, regardless of Tuesday’s election outcome, this relationship will endure.
